A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that split the country and unleashed chaos, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in academia but scarcely any elected officials or activists are willing to participate even with the basics. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author supports unity or the existing arrangement. Both authors two essays that strive for objectivity in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and societal figures, past examples and structural examples.
Debates encompass national emblems, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," stated O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the idea that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they prefer unity but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government must work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his era is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a feckless government minister who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified points, he commented. "One side will win here and somebody will eventually be defeated but both parties has got something to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
