Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action
The sequence of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: hopeful statements are delivered from different nations. Immense energy is allocated on containing certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "resolution".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from enemy soil, a ability enabled by up-to-date information. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been deployed to intercept incoming guided weapons streaked across the sky – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: multiple launches fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely delivered by allied countries. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly gives way to grim resignation: maybe the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and further power outages.
Persistent Threats
Following this, a heavy machine gun engaged a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely Western-made equipment. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its target.
With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: several casualties, damage and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a reliance that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to substitute in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The comprehensive proposal from American leadership sparked intense emotion, controversy and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.
Every new proposal from Washington follows the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, no doubt, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame certain parties of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration functions according to a premise well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration presumes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to relinquish the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from believing that the situation will not evolve additionally in its favour in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding people and territory but averting a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its advantage.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: political desires to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not switch to domestic problems. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a just a single week to kill the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new plans based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, mainly require continued Western support.
